To be clear, this isn’t an “Is Facebook dead?” piece. Obviously Facebook is far from dead, and has become integrated in many facets of our lives, and will likely become integrated in more. In fact, just a few days ago, we ran a piece asking what we’ll be using Facebook for five years from now. We talked about things like payments, e-commerce, travel, search, identity, and entertainment.
Does Facebook have a bright future, or has it seen its finest hour? Tell us what you think.
As the comments we received on that article indicate, many people think Facebook will be around for the long haul (as opposed to experiencing a MySpace-like decline), but some aren’t so sure. Dave Culbertson, for example, says, “Facebook is basically AOL, part two on a larger scale. AOL was really about controlling content distribution and ecommerce. Companies such as Travelocity ended up paying millions of $$ to AOL to be ‘where the people are’ before they figured out that they could use the web to by-pass the AOL platform and go directly to where the most people are. Many brands jumping on the Facebook wagon will eventually realize this – again – and refocus on their websites. Do brands want to drive their own cars on the information highway or be stuck in the back of someone else’s bus?”
Chris Smith commented, “I personally think Facebook will fail. The invasion of privacy is starting to concern everyone. Also, the figure of 700 million users is rubbish, 700 million accounts maybe, but I believe this will be less than half unique users. How many pets have accounts, businesses, people with 2 accounts. Its all publicity figures in my opinion. 1 in 10 people of the world don’t have an account in my experience. Something will beat Facebook for usability and the privacy concerns in my opinion everyone will shift to that, I’d personally give Facebook 3 years max. They will end up the same way as Yahoo, who once were huge for the internet and where are they now, really?”
Well, actually Yahoo is still doing pretty well as far as the web is concerned. The company may have lost some of its luster in the search space, but it is still dominating in other areas. MySpace, for that matter (while clearly in decline), still had over 32 million unique visitors in April (Compete) while News Corp. looks to sell it. AOL, has had something of a resurgence, as it has become a more content-oriented company. Purchasing the Huffington Post was huge.
But can Facebook grow forever? According to Inside Facebook, the social network ahd 687 million total users at the beginning of June, but growth is slowing. Last year, it was common for Facebook to get 20 million new users in a month. This past April, it was 13.8 million. In May, it was even less at 11.8 million. Still a lot, but not by Facebook standards.
According to InsideFacebook, Facebook actually lost users in the US and Canada. In the US, Facebook dropped 6 million users in May, and Canada dropped 1.52 million. They also lost users in the UK and Norway, though the social network saw growth in countries like Brazil, Thailand, and Mexico.
According to Experian Hitwise, YouTube and Twitter are “eroding Facebook’s dominance of social.”
I look at the floor, and I see it needs sleeping, still my guitar gently weeps...
